It has to manage the largest population in the world, which will continue to put tremendous stress upon the country’s economy, natural resources and environment, said Li Bing, minister of the Population and Family Planning Commission.
China’s population will peak in the first half of this century to reach 1.5 billion in 2033, increasing by 8 million a year on average, he said.
The problem of employment will keep troubling the central as well as local governments. Its working population – people aged between 15 and 64 – will peak in 2016 to reach 990 million; 970 million in 2030 and 870 million in 2050, Li said.
Meanwhile, the governments must come up with policies to enable farmers who migrate into cities to enjoy the same rights as their urban peers. Some 300 million people will migrate from rural areas to settle in urban areas in the coming 20 to 30 years.
The country will also have to work out measures to handle well its aging population. The number of the Chinese aged 60 and above is expected to reach 162.4 million in 2020, and 320 million in 2040s.
According to a calculation of Cai Fang, a social researcher and director of the Population and Labor Economics Research Institute, of the China Academy of Social Sciences, the Chinese aged between 50 and 64 account for 20 per cent of the working age population.
However, many of them retire at ages such as 51, much earlier than the legal retirement age, either by forced arrangement or out of their own will. “This is a tremendous waste of labor resources,” he said.
